Fixture Overview
- Competition: La Liga
- Date & Time: February 17, 04:00 (GMT+8)
- Teams: Girona FC (€155.80m squad value) vs FC Barcelona (€1.11bn squad value)
- Market Odds Movement: Girona Win (7.0 ↑), Draw (4.9 ↓), Barcelona Win (0.4 ↓)
Key Statistical Insights
- Squad Value Disparity: Barcelona’s squad valuation (€1.11bn) is over seven times that of Girona (€155.80m), indicating a massive gap in financial resources and player quality.
- Market Sentiment: Odds movement shows increased confidence in a Barcelona victory (decreasing from 0.4), while Girona’s odds have lengthened.
Match Predictions & Key Tips
- Best Tip: Barcelona to Win (2) – Odds: 0.4, Confidence: 10/10
- 1×2 Tip: Barcelona Win (2) – Odds: 0.4, Confidence: 10/10
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 – Odds: 0.34, Confidence: 4/10
- Both Teams To Score: Yes – Odds: 0.56, Confidence: 1/10
- Bet Builder Tip: Draw or Barcelona & Over 2.5 Goals (X2 & O2.5) – Odds: 0.47, Confidence: 3/10
- Half-Time Score Prediction: 0:0
- Correct Score Prediction: 1:2
Statistical Predictions (Per Match)
The data model forecasts overwhelming dominance for Barcelona in all key metrics:
- Expected Goals (xG): Girona 1.07 vs Barcelona 2.82
- Ball Possession: Girona 34% vs Barcelona 66%
- Total Shots: Girona 7 vs Barcelona 20
- Shots on Target: Girona 2 vs Barcelona 7
- Shots off Target: Girona 2 vs Barcelona 6
- Corners: Girona 2 vs Barcelona 7
- Yellow Cards: Girona 3 vs Barcelona 1 Barcelona is projected to control the game, create nearly three times the quality of chances (xG 2.82 vs 1.07), and generate significantly more attacking actions.
Seasonal Average Match Data
Analysis of average per-match statistics reveals Barcelona’s clear superiority:
- Expected Goals (xG): Girona 1.26 vs Barcelona 2.84
- Total Goals (Avg): Girona 2.3 vs Barcelona 3.8
- Goals Scored (Avg): Girona 1.0 vs Barcelona 2.5
- Goals Conceded (Avg): Both Teams 1.3
- Possession (Avg): Girona 55% vs Barcelona 70%
- Total Shots (Avg): Girona 11.0 vs Barcelona 20.6
- Shots on Target (Avg): Girona 3.7 vs Barcelona 8.0
- Shots off Target (Avg): Girona 4.2 vs Barcelona 6.6
- Fouls (Avg): Girona 12.6 vs Barcelona 10.8
- Corners (Avg): Girona 3.6 vs Barcelona 7.7
- Total Passes (Avg): Girona 492 vs Barcelona 656 The data underscores Barcelona’s dominance in attack (scoring 2.5 goals per game vs 1.0), chance creation (xG 2.84 vs 1.26), possession (70% vs 55%), and overall control of the game.
Form Guide (Last 10 Matches)
Overview of recent form:
- Girona: 4 Wins. 8 matches with Over 1.5 goals, 5 with Over 2.5, 0 with Over 3.5, 6 where Both Teams Scored.
- Barcelona: 8 Wins. 10 matches with Over 1.5 goals, 9 with Over 2.5, 5 with Over 3.5, 5 where Both Teams Scored. Barcelona is in far superior recent form, winning 80% of their last 10 matches compared to Girona’s 40%. Barcelona’s games are also consistently higher-scoring.
Head-to-Head Record (H2H)
- Overall Record (Last 10 Meetings): Barcelona 8 Wins, 2 Draws, Girona 2 Wins.
- Recent Fixtures (Most Recent First):
- 18 Oct 2025: Barcelona 2-1 Girona
- 30 Mar 2025: Barcelona 4-1 Girona
- 15 Sep 2024: Girona 1-4 Barcelona
- 04 May 2024: Girona 4-2 Barcelona
- 10 Dec 2023: Barcelona 2-4 Girona
- 10 Apr 2023: Barcelona 0-0 Girona
- 28 Jan 2023: Girona 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona holds a commanding historical advantage (8-2-2). Notably, the last meeting in Girona (Sep 2024) was a 1-4 victory for Barcelona.
Tactical Analysis & Prediction
- Barcelona: The overwhelming favorite. Expected to dominate possession (66% predicted) and create a high volume of quality chances (xG 2.82). Their superior seasonal form, attacking output, and H2H dominance are key strengths. The predicted 1-2 scoreline suggests a win where they may concede but outscore their opponent.
- Girona: Face a significant challenge. Their strategy will likely focus on defensive resilience and seeking opportunities on the counter. While they have pulled off surprise results against Barcelona in the past (e.g., 4-2 win in May 2024), the statistical projections and recent form heavily favor the visitors.
Final Verdict & Betting Insight
Predicted Score: Girona 1 – 2 Barcelona
All pre-match indicators strongly point towards a Barcelona victory. The extreme disparity in predicted statistics (possession, xG, shots), Barcelona’s superior seasonal metrics and recent form, and their dominant head-to-head record make them clear favorites. While Girona’s home advantage and historical capacity to score against Barcelona (as seen in the “Both Teams Scored” form data) suggest they can find the net, Barcelona’s overall quality is expected to secure all three points.
Recommended Tips:
- Most Probable Outcome: Barcelona to Win – The standout tip with maximum confidence (10/10), supported by all data points.
- Scorecast: Girona 1-2 Barcelona – The predicted correct score aligns with expectations of a Barcelona win in a match where both teams likely score.
- Value Consideration: The Both Teams to Score: Yes tip, despite a low confidence rating, is plausible given H2H history and both teams’ scoring form.
