What is Value Betting?
Value betting involves identifying bets where the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the true probability of an outcome. Unlike arbitrage betting, which guarantees a profit by covering all outcomes, value betting relies on statistical analysis to find mispriced odds.
How to Implement It?
- Calculate Implied Probability – Convert bookmaker odds into implied probability using: Implied Probability=1/Decimal Odds×100
- Estimate True Probability – Use statistical models, historical data, or AI-powered tools to assess the real likelihood of an event.
- Compare & Bet – If your estimated probability is higher than the bookmaker’s implied probability, place a bet.
Example:
- Bookmaker offers 3.00 (33.3% implied probability) on Team A winning.
- Your analysis suggests Team A has a 40% chance of winning.
- This is a value bet because the expected return is positive.
Pros & Cons:
✅ Profitable long-term if applied correctly.
❌ Requires deep statistical knowledge and discipline.
