Fixture Overview
- Competition: Serie A
- Date & Time: February 14, 03:45 (GMT+8)
- Teams: Pisa (€111.80m squad value) vs AC Milan (€493.50m squad value)
Key Statistical Insights
- Squad Value Disparity: AC Milan’s squad valuation (€493.50m) is approximately 4.4 times that of Pisa (€111.80m), indicating a substantial advantage in player quality and resources.
- Market Odds: The implied probability heavily favors an AC Milan victory.
Match Predictions & Key Tips
- Most Probable Outcome: AC Milan to Win (2) – Confidence: 10/10
- Alternative 1×2: AC Milan to Win (2) – Confidence: 10/10
- Total Goals: Under 3.5 – Confidence: 2/10
- Both Teams To Score: No – Confidence: 1/10
- Bet Builder Suggestion: Draw or AC Milan Win & Under 4.5 Goals (X2 & U4.5) – Confidence: 5/10
- Half-Time Score Prediction: 0:1
- Full-Time Score Prediction: 0:2
Statistical Predictions (Per Match)
A detailed statistical model forecasts clear dominance for AC Milan across all key performance metrics:
- Expected Goals (xG): Pisa 0.8 vs AC Milan 1.5
- Ball Possession: Pisa 39% vs AC Milan 61%
- Total Shots: Pisa 9 vs AC Milan 14
- Shots on Target: Pisa 3 vs AC Milan 5
- Shots off Target: Pisa 3 vs AC Milan 5
- Corners: Pisa 3 vs AC Milan 6 AC Milan is projected to control the game, create nearly double the quality of chances, and generate significantly more attacking actions.
Seasonal Average Match Data
Analysis of average per-match statistics reveals a stark contrast in team profiles:
- Total Goals (Avg): Pisa 3.0 vs AC Milan 2.4
- Goals Scored (Avg): Pisa 0.9 vs AC Milan 1.6
- Goals Conceded (Avg): Pisa 2.1 vs AC Milan 0.8
- Total Shots (Avg): Pisa 10.9 vs AC Milan 13.6
- Shots on Target (Avg): Pisa 3.4 vs AC Milan 4.7
- Shots off Target (Avg): Pisa 4.6 vs AC Milan 5.4
- Fouls Committed (Avg): Pisa 13.1 vs AC Milan 9.6
- Offsides (Avg): Pisa 1.7 vs AC Milan 1.8
- Total Passes (Avg): Pisa 308 vs AC Milan 488 The data underscores AC Milan’s clear superiority in both attack (scoring nearly twice as many goals) and defense (conceding less than half). Milan also demonstrates much greater control of the game, evidenced by a significantly higher average number of passes.
Form Guide (Last 10 Matches)
Overview of Pisa’s recent form based on the last 10 matches:
- Wins: 5
- Over 1.5 Goals: 8 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals: 4 matches
- Over 3.5 Goals: 2 matches
- Both Teams Scored: 5 matches
- Unexpected Wins: 0
- Unexpected Losses: 0 Pisa shows reasonable form with a 50% win rate, frequently involved in matches with goals.
Head-to-Head Record (H2H)
- Overall Recent Record: The head-to-head data shows one recent meeting.
- Most Recent Fixture:
- 24 Oct 2025: AC Milan 2-2 Pisa The solitary recent encounter ended in a 2-2 draw, suggesting Pisa can be a competitive opponent for AC Milan.
Tactical Analysis & Prediction
- AC Milan: The statistical and qualitative favorite. Expected to dominate possession (61% predicted) and create higher-quality chances (xG 1.5). Their superior defensive record (0.8 goals conceded avg.) is a key strength. The predicted 0-2 scoreline suggests a controlled away victory with a clean sheet.
- Pisa: Will likely adopt a defensive approach and look to counter-attack. Their recent H2H result (2-2 draw) provides a psychological boost, proving they can score against Milan. However, their defensive vulnerabilities (2.1 goals conceded avg.) will be severely tested.
Final Verdict & Betting Insight
Predicted Score: Pisa 0 – 2 AC Milan
AC Milan emerges as the clear favorite based on overwhelming statistical advantages in squad value, predicted game control (possession, xG), and seasonal performance metrics (both offensively and defensively). While Pisa’s recent draw against Milan shows they are not to be underestimated, Milan’s overall quality and solidity are expected to prevail in a more controlled manner this time, likely securing a win without conceding.
Recommended Tips:
- Most Probable Outcome: AC Milan to Win – The standout prediction with maximum confidence (10/10), supported by all key data.
- Scorecast: Pisa 0-2 AC Milan – The predicted correct score aligns with expectations of an AC Milan victory and a potential clean sheet.
- Value Consideration: The Both Teams to Score: No tip, while low confidence, aligns with Milan’s strong defensive average and the 0-2 prediction.
