For players who have mastered basic strategy and bankroll discipline, card counting is the next step to gaining a tangible mathematical edge over the casino. The Hi-Lo System is the most widely taught and effective method for beginners.
1. The Core Principle: Tracking the Balance
The Hi-Lo system assigns a simple point value to each card:
- +1: Low cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
- 0: Neutral cards (7, 8, 9)
- -1: High cards (10, J, Q, K, A)
As cards are dealt, you maintain a “Running Count.” A high, positive count means more low cards have been played, indicating the remaining deck is rich in high-value cards (10s and Aces). This is advantageous for the player, as it increases the chances of getting blackjacks and the dealer busting.
2. From Running Count to True Count
The raw Running Count must be adjusted for the number of decks left to be accurate. This is called the “True Count.”
- Formula: True Count = Running Count ÷ Number of Decks Remaining.
- Estimate Decks Remaining: Observe the discard tray. If you started with a 6-deck shoe and roughly 4 decks are in the tray, about 2 decks remain.
3. Betting Based on the True Count
This is where you turn information into profit. You vary your bet size in proportion to your advantage.
- True Count ≤ 0: Bet your minimum unit (1 unit).
- True Count = +1: Bet 1-2 units.
- True Count = +2: Bet 2-4 units.
- True Count ≥ +3: Bet your maximum unit (e.g., 5-6 units or more, based on your bankroll).
4. Critical Practices for Success
- Practice First: Use apps or software to drill counting down a deck perfectly before playing with real money.
- Camouflage Your Play: Continue to follow Basic Strategyperfectly regardless of the count. Only your bet size should change. Avoid obvious staring at the discard tray.
- Manage Variance: An edge is not a guarantee. You will still face losing sessions. Strict bankroll management (using a larger bankroll of 500+ units for counting) is essential to survive the swings.
