Fixture Overview
- Competition: Premier League
- Date & Time: January 17, 23:00 (GMT+8)
- Teams: Liverpool (€1.04bn squad value) vs Burnley (€253.75m squad value)
- Market Odds: Liverpool (0.26) | Draw (5.75) | Burnley (14.0)
Key Statistical Insights
- Squad Value Disparity: Liverpool’s squad valuation (€1.04bn) is more than four times that of Burnley (€253.75m), highlighting a massive gap in financial power and player quality.
- Market Analysis: The betting market overwhelmingly favors a home victory for Liverpool, reflecting their status as prohibitive favorites.
- Fixture Note: A warning indicates that Liverpool has an upcoming match in a European competition, which may influence team selection or performance.
Predictions & Best Tips
- Best Tip: Liverpool to Win (1) – Odds: 0.26, Confidence: 10/10
- 1×2 Tip: Liverpool Win (1) – Odds: 0.26, Confidence: 10/10
- Total Goals: Under 3.5 – Odds: 0.58, Confidence: 4/10
- Both Teams To Score: Yes – Odds: 1.17, Confidence: 1/10
- Bet Builder Tip: 1X & Under 4.5 Goals – Odds: 0.36, Confidence: 4/10
- Half-Time Score Prediction: 1:0
- Final Score Prediction: 2:1
Statistical Predictions (Per Match)
- Expected Goals (xG): Liverpool 1.72 vs Burnley 0.81
- Ball Possession: Liverpool 67% vs Burnley 33%
- Total Shots: Liverpool 18 vs Burnley 7
- Shots on Goal: Liverpool 4 vs Burnley 2
- Shots off Goal: Liverpool 5 vs Burnley 2
- Corners: Liverpool 6 vs Burnley 4 The statistical model forecasts clear dominance for Liverpool, projecting them to create more than double the quality of chances (xG) and control the game with superior possession.
Seasonal Average Match Data
Analysis based on statistical averages per match:
- Expected Goals (xG): Liverpool 1.49 vs Burnley 1.16
- Total Goals (Per Match Avg): Liverpool 2.6 vs Burnley 3.1
- Goals Scored: Liverpool 1.7 vs Burnley 1.3
- Goals Conceded: Liverpool 0.9 vs Burnley 1.8
- Possession: Liverpool 60% vs Burnley 46%
- Total Shots: Liverpool 14.9 vs Burnley 10.5
- Shots on Goal: Liverpool 4.1 vs Burnley 3.3
- Shots off Goal: Liverpool 5.2 vs Burnley 3.4
- Fouls Committed: Liverpool 8.4 vs Burnley 9.7
- Corners: Liverpool 5.5 vs Burnley 5.6
- Offsides: Liverpool 2.5 vs Burnley 1.4
- Yellow Cards: Liverpool 1.38 vs Burnley 1.86
- Total Passes: Liverpool 588 vs Burnley 430 The seasonal data underscores Liverpool’s clear superiority, averaging more goals scored, significantly fewer conceded, and dominating in chance creation (xG), possession, and shot volume.
Form Guide (Last 10 Matches)
Overview of a team’s recent form (inferred to be Burnley’s based on 1 win in 10):
- Wins: 1
- Over 1.5 Goals: 8 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals: 5 matches
- Over 3.5 Goals: 6 matches
- Both Teams Scored: 7 matches
- Unexpected Wins: 0
- Unexpected Losses: 0 The team shows poor form in terms of wins but is frequently involved in high-scoring matches.
Head-to-Head Record (H2H)
- Overall Record: Liverpool 13 Wins, 2 Draws, 2 Losses.
- Recent Fixtures (Most Recent First):
- 14 Sep 2025: Burnley 0-1 Liverpool
- 10 Feb 2024: Liverpool 3-1 Burnley
- 26 Dec 2023: Burnley 0-2 Liverpool
- 13 Feb 2022: Burnley 0-1 Liverpool
- 21 Aug 2021: Liverpool 2-0 Burnley
- 19 May 2021: Burnley 0-3 Liverpool
- 21 Jan 2021: Liverpool 0-1 Burnley
- 11 Jul 2020: Burnley 1-1 Liverpool
- 31 Aug 2019: Liverpool 3-0 Burnley
- 10 Mar 2019: Burnley 4-2 Liverpool Liverpool holds a commanding historical advantage (13-2-2) and is unbeaten in the last five H2H meetings (4 wins, 1 draw).
Tactical Analysis & Prediction
- Liverpool: The overwhelming favorite. Projected to dominate possession (67%) and chance creation (xG 1.72). Their superior seasonal metrics in attack and defense should see them control the game. The predicted 2-1 scoreline suggests they may concede but have more than enough firepower to win, potentially with a rotated squad due to European commitments.
- Burnley: Faces a difficult task. They will likely defend deeply and look for set-pieces or counters. Their recent form shows they are often involved in high-scoring games and frequently concede, which aligns with the “Both Teams to Score: Yes” possibility. Avoiding a heavy defeat will be a primary goal.
Final Verdict & Betting Insight
Predicted Score: Liverpool 2 – 1 Burnley
All data points decisively towards a Liverpool victory. The vast disparity in squad value, predicted and seasonal statistics, and dominant head-to-head record all favor the home side. The main considerations are Liverpool’s potential European match rotation and Burnley’s tendency to both score and concede in their recent outings, which supports the 2-1 prediction over a more emphatic win.
Recommended Tips:
- Most Probable Outcome: Liverpool to Win – The standout tip with maximum confidence (10/10), strongly supported by all data. The extremely low odds (0.26) reflect its high probability.
- Scorecast: Liverpool 2-1 – The predicted correct score acknowledges Liverpool’s superiority and Burnley’s potential to score in a match with goals.
- Consideration: The warning about Liverpool’s European match is a factor to weigh, though their depth should still be sufficient against Burnley.
