Fixture Overview
- Competition: Serie A
- Date & Time: January 4, 19:30 (GMT+8)
- Teams: Lazio (€266.35m squad value) vs Napoli (€503.30m squad value)
- Match Odds: Lazio (2.65) | Draw (2.1) | Napoli (1.35)
Key Statistical Insights
- Squad Value Disparity: Napoli’s squad valuation (€503.30m) is nearly double that of Lazio (€266.35m), indicating a significant advantage in financial resources and perceived player quality.
- Market Analysis: The betting market identifies Napoli as the clear favorite to win this away fixture.
Predictions & Best Tips
- Best Tip: Under 2.5 Total Goals (U2.5) – Odds: 0.52, Confidence: 9/10
- 1×2 Tip: Napoli to Win (2) – Odds: 1.35, Confidence: 2/10
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 – Odds: 0.52, Confidence: 9/10
- Both Teams To Score: No – Odds: 0.7, Confidence: 7/10
- Bet Builder Tip: Draw or Napoli & Under 4.5 Goals (X2 & U4.5) – Odds: 0.46, Confidence: 1/10
- Half-Time Score Prediction: 0:0
- Final Score Prediction: 0:1
Statistical Predictions (Per Match)
Data models project a tightly contested match with Napoli holding a slight edge in key metrics:
- Expected Goals (xG): Lazio 0.74 vs Napoli 1.44
- Ball Possession: Lazio 48% vs Napoli 52%
- Total Shots: Both Teams 11
- Shots on Target: Both Teams 4
- Shots off Target: Both Teams 4
- Corners: Lazio 4 vs Napoli 5
- Yellow Cards: Lazio 2 vs Napoli 1 The projection shows a balanced match in terms of shot volume, but Napoli is favored to create higher-quality chances (xG 1.44 vs 0.74) and have slightly more possession.
Seasonal Average Match Data
Analysis based on statistical averages per match:
- Expected Goals (xG): Lazio 0.83 vs Napoli 1.59
- Total Goals (Per Match Avg): Lazio 1.3 vs Napoli 2.1
- Goals Scored: Lazio 0.8 vs Napoli 1.5
- Goals Conceded: Lazio 0.5 vs Napoli 0.6
- Possession: Lazio 53% vs Napoli 52%
- Total Shots: Both Teams 11.8
- Shots on Target: Lazio 4.8 vs Napoli 4.9
- Shots off Target: Lazio 4.7 vs Napoli 4.5
- Fouls Committed: Lazio 10.6 vs Napoli 11.8
- Corners: Lazio 4.7 vs Napoli 5.9
- Offsides: Lazio 0.9 vs Napoli 1.8
- Yellow Cards: Lazio 2.0 vs Napoli 1.5
- Total Passes: Lazio 504 vs Napoli 484 The seasonal data reveals Napoli as the more potent attacking side, averaging nearly double the goals scored. Lazio, however, shows slightly better defensive solidity. Most other metrics are remarkably even.
Form Guide (Last 10 Matches)
Overview of recent form for the involved teams:
- Lazio Form (Last 10): 4 Wins. 5 matches with Over 1.5 goals, 0 with Over 2.5, 0 with Over 3.5, 2 where Both Teams Scored. 0 Unexpected Wins/Losses.
- Napoli Form (Last 10): 7 Wins. 8 matches with Over 1.5 goals, 2 with Over 2.5, 1 with Over 3.5, 3 where Both Teams Scored. 0 Unexpected Wins/Losses. Napoli is in significantly better form, having secured 7 wins in their last 10 matches compared to Lazio’s 4.
Head-to-Head Record (H2H)
- Overall Record: Napoli 18 Wins, 5 Draws, Lazio 9 Wins.
- Recent Fixtures (Most Recent First):
- 15 Feb 2025: Lazio 2-2 Napoli
- 08 Dec 2024: Napoli 0-1 Lazio
- 05 Dec 2024: Lazio 3-1 Napoli
- 28 Jan 2024: Napoli 0-0 Lazio
- 02 Sep 2023: Lazio 1-2 Napoli
- 03 Mar 2023: Napoli 0-1 Lazio
- 03 Sep 2022: Lazio 1-2 Napoli (Further results continue…) Napoli holds a commanding historical advantage (18-5-9). Recent matches have been competitive, with Lazio winning two of the last three encounters.
Tactical Analysis & Prediction
- Napoli: The statistical favorite, projected to create better chances (higher xG) and backed by superior recent form. Their seasonal attacking output (1.5 goals avg.) is notably stronger. The predicted 0-1 scoreline suggests a game where their quality might tell in a tight contest.
- Lazio: Will rely on a strong defensive record (0.5 goals conceded avg.) and home advantage. Their lower projected xG indicates a game plan possibly focused on containment and efficiency. Recent H2H wins show they can overcome Napoli.
Final Verdict & Betting Insight
Predicted Score: Lazio 0 – 1 Napoli
This is forecasted to be a low-scoring, tactical battle. While Napoli is favored by the market, squad value, and attacking metrics, Lazio’s excellent defensive record and home capability make an upset plausible. The high-confidence tips for Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score: No align with the defensive strengths of both teams and the predicted 0-1 outcome. Napoli’s slightly superior form and chance creation may prove decisive in a close match.
Recommended Tips:
- Safest Bet: Under 2.5 Total Goals – The strongest confidence rating (9/10) reflects the defensive data for both sides.
- Most Probable Outcome: Napoli to Win – The market favorite, supported by better form and attacking averages.
- Scorecast: Lazio 0-1 Napoli – The predicted correct score combines Napoli’s favoritism with the expectation of a low-scoring game.
