Fixture Overview
- Competition: German Bundesliga
- Date & Time: January 17, 22:30 (GMT+8)
- Teams: Borussia Dortmund (€500.50m squad value) vs FC St. Pauli (€N/A)
- Market Odds: Dortmund (0.35) | Draw (4.45) | St. Pauli (9.5)
Key Statistical Insights
- Market Analysis: The betting market overwhelmingly favors a home victory for Borussia Dortmund, reflecting a significant disparity in perceived quality and status.
- Fixture Note: A warning indicates that Borussia Dortmund has an upcoming match in a European competition, which may influence team selection or performance.
Predictions & Best Tips
- Best Tip: Dortmund to Win (1) – Odds: 0.35, Confidence: 10/10
- 1×2 Tip: Dortmund Win (1) – Odds: 0.35, Confidence: 10/10
- Total Goals: Under 3.5 – Odds: 0.46, Confidence: 1/10
- Both Teams To Score: No – Odds: 0.79, Confidence: 3/10
- Bet Builder Tip: 1X & Under 4.5 Goals – Odds: 0.33, Confidence: 4/10
- Half-Time Score Prediction: 0:0
- Correct Score Prediction: 2:0
Statistical Predictions (Per Match)
- Expected Goals (xG): Dortmund 2.07 vs St. Pauli 0.4
- Ball Possession: Dortmund 67% vs St. Pauli 33%
- Total Shots: Dortmund 15 vs St. Pauli 6
- Shots on Target: Dortmund 6 vs St. Pauli 1
- Shots off Target: Dortmund 5 vs St. Pauli 2
- Corners: Dortmund 6 vs St. Pauli 2 The statistical model forecasts near-total dominance for Dortmund, projecting them to create vastly superior chances (over 5x the xG) and control the game completely.
Seasonal Average Match Data
Analysis based on statistical averages per match:
- Expected Goals (xG): Dortmund 1.9 vs St. Pauli 0.56
- Total Goals (Per Match Avg): Dortmund 3.3 vs St. Pauli 2.3
- Goals Scored: Dortmund 2.2 vs St. Pauli 0.8
- Goals Conceded: Dortmund 1.1 vs St. Pauli 1.5
- Possession: Dortmund 52% vs St. Pauli 44%
- Total Shots: Dortmund 13.7 vs St. Pauli 9.2
- Shots on Target: Dortmund 5.7 vs St. Pauli 2.8
- Shots off Target: Dortmund 5.2 vs St. Pauli 3.7
- Fouls Committed: Dortmund 10.1 vs St. Pauli 8.7
- Corners: Dortmund 5.3 vs St. Pauli 4.3 The seasonal data highlights Dortmund’s clear superiority, averaging nearly triple the goals scored, better defense, and significantly higher chance creation.
Form Guide (Last 10 Matches)
Overview of a team’s recent form (inferred to be Dortmund’s):
- Wins: 5
- Over 1.5 Goals: 9 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals: 6 matches
- Over 3.5 Goals: 4 matches
- Both Teams Scored: 5 matches The team shows solid form, frequently involved in matches with multiple goals.
Head-to-Head Record (H2H)
- Overall Record: St. Pauli 5 Wins, 1 Draw, Borussia Dortmund 1 Win.
- Recent Fixtures (Most Recent First):
- 23 Aug 2025: St. Pauli 3-3 Dortmund
- 01 Mar 2025: Dortmund 2-0 St. Pauli
- 18 Oct 2024: St. Pauli 2-1 Dortmund
- 18 Jan 2022: St. Pauli 2-1 Dortmund
- 28 Oct 2014: Dortmund 3-0 St. Pauli
- 19 Feb 2011: St. Pauli 2-0 Dortmund St. Pauli holds a commanding historical advantage (5-1-1) in the head-to-head record.
Tactical Analysis & Prediction
- Borussia Dortmund: Despite the surprising H2H record, they are the overwhelming statistical favorite. Projected to dominate possession (67%) and chance creation (xG 2.07). Their superior seasonal metrics in all attacking and defensive departments should see them control the game. The predicted 2-0 scoreline suggests a professional, controlled victory.
- FC St. Pauli: Historically a bogey team for Dortmund. They will likely rely on a resilient, compact defensive approach and look to exploit any complacency or distraction from Dortmund’s European commitments. Their impressive H2H record is their main psychological weapon.
Final Verdict & Betting Insight
Predicted Score: Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 FC St. Pauli
This match presents a fascinating clash between current statistical reality and historical precedent. All present-day metrics—squad value, market odds, predicted and seasonal statistics—overwhelmingly point to a Dortmund victory, likely by a clean sheet. However, St. Pauli’s dominant H2H record serves as a stark warning that past meetings have not followed the script. Dortmund’s superior quality and home advantage are expected to finally overcome the historical hurdle in a match they should control.
Recommended Tips:
- Most Probable Outcome: Dortmund to Win – The standout tip with maximum confidence (10/10), reflecting the clear statistical and qualitative advantage. The very low odds (0.35) indicate its high probability.
- Scorecast: Dortmund 2-0 – The predicted correct score aligns with Dortmund’s dominance and the expectation they can keep a historically tricky opponent at bay.
- Consideration: The warning about Dortmund’s European match could introduce an element of rotation or fatigue, slightly increasing the risk factor despite the strong data.
