Macau Gaming Rally Expected to Accelerate Into October’s Golden Week

Macau’s casino sector is maintaining strong momentum as September gets underway, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) rising 10% year-on-year in the first week of the month, according to Jefferies. Analysts predict that the city’s gaming surge will carry through the rest of September and peak during Golden Week, China’s national holiday beginning October 1.

Jefferies raises forecasts

Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei cited “robust entertainment offerings, new resort launches, enhanced player incentives, and rising asset values” as key drivers of growth. They also pointed to a growing segment of “new wealth” customers—consumers with higher disposable incomes who are willing to spend more on premium experiences.

The analysts now expect Macau’s GGR to climb 13.8% in Q3, 15.3% in Q4, and 9.5% overall for 2025. Full-year projections have been revised upward from MOP237 billion to MOP248 billion, surpassing the government’s more conservative MOP228 billion forecast. Looking further ahead, Jefferies anticipates GGR growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

Citigroup highlights entertainment and baccarat side bets

Citigroup analysts agreed that Macau’s entertainment-driven strategy is paying off. Concerts by Jacky Cheung and Eason Chan have already drawn high-value players, while upcoming headline events like the NBA China Games (October 10–12 at Venetian Arena) and Jackson Wang’s Galaxy Arena shows (October 11–12) are expected to drive additional traffic.

“If these events push gaming volumes higher even after Golden Week, our October GGR estimate of MOP23 billion (US$2.86 billion) may turn out to be too conservative,” wrote Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.

Beyond entertainment, the analysts noted that the rising popularity of baccarat side bets is improving operator hold rates, particularly within the premium-mass segment. “Since April, our table surveys have consistently shown strong demand in the premium-mass market,” they said.

Revised long-term outlook

Citigroup has also adjusted its own forecasts, lifting 2025 GGR expectations from +7% to +10% year-on-year, to MOP248.6 billion. For 2026, the bank raised its projection from +5% to +7%, to MOP265.5 billion.