Macau’s gaming sector is showing signs of resilience beyond earlier forecasts. Analysts at Morgan Stanley now project that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow 15% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, outpacing the broader market consensus.
Stronger-than-Expected Momentum
Macau’s gaming sector is showing signs of resilience beyond earlier forecasts. Analysts at Morgan Stanley now project that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow 15% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, outpacing the broader market consensus.
According to GGRAsia, a recent site visit highlighted the strength of gaming demand. Casinos were reportedly “packed even on Monday mornings,” with Galaxy Macau’s minimum bet set at HK$1,000 (US$128), while tables at Melco properties were operating in the HK$1,000–2,000 range (US$128–256). Hotel rooms were described as “sold out,” reflecting robust summer demand.
Analysts also emphasized the impact of non-gaming events such as concerts and sports, many of which sold out well in advance—helping to sustain visitor inflows. For August, GGR is projected to increase 12%, laying what Morgan Stanley calls a “solid baseline” for the year.
JP Morgan Echoes Optimism
The bullish outlook builds on an earlier JP Morgan report, which raised its annual forecast after three consecutive months of stronger-than-expected performance. The bank now anticipates 13% GGR growth in the second half of 2025, compared with 4% in the first half, and sees the momentum lasting at least into Q1 2026.
From January through July, Macau’s industry-wide GGR reached MOP 140.9 billion (US$17.4bn), marking a 6.5% year-on-year increase. Analysts attribute the rebound to revived spending power among mainland Chinese entrepreneurs, combined with improved consumer confidence fueled by strong equity market performance in both Hong Kong and the U.S.
Dividends Return, But Costs Rising
Operators have also resumed dividend payouts, boosting investor appeal.
- Wynn Macau declared a mid-year dividend of HK$0.185 per share.
- MGM China distributed HK$0.313 per share, with a payout ratio above 50%.
- Galaxy Entertainment offered HK$0.70 per share, also exceeding 50%.
- Sands China, despite keeping its payout ratio at 60%, announced only HK$0.25 per share after repaying a US$1 billion loan to its U.S. parent company.
Still, industry-wide operating costs rose 14% in Q2, compressing margins. Analysts believe, however, that higher revenue in the second half will improve operating leverage.
Competitive Landscape
In the near term, market share remains stable, with no major new casino capacity coming online. Competition among existing operators is expected to remain intense.
Future upside is expected from Galaxy Macau’s Phase IV expansion, while Wynn and Galaxy are seen as potential share gainers in Q3. Conversely, the end of the satellite casino licensing model is viewed as a negative for SJM Holdings, which could see some revenue diverted to rivals such as Sands and MGM.
Overall, analysts point to a combination of steady demand, a full slate of non-gaming entertainment, and resumed dividends as reasons for optimism—reinforcing the belief that Macau’s current growth cycle could extend well into 2026.
