Rank Group Profit Forecast Surges as Slot Machine Reform Begins to Show Results

UK casino operator Rank Group has raised its full-year profit forecast, benefiting from strong trading over the holiday period and positioning itself to capitalize on a landmark regulatory reform that came into effect this month.

Rank Group confirmed that it expects to achieve £63 million (approx. €74.3 million) in underlying operating profit for the financial year ending June 30, 2025. This marks a 35% increase from FY2024, primarily driven by an 11% year-over-year rise in comparable net gaming revenue, which reached £795 million (approx. €937.1 million).

The announcement was released directly by Rank Group plc but hosted on the London Stock Exchange’s disclosure platform under parent company Guoco, and can be accessed here. It precedes the official release of Rank’s full-year results on August 14, confirming the strong momentum seen over the Christmas and New Year period—an observation already highlighted in earlier coverage by SiGMA News.

July Slot Machine Reform Set to Further Boost Profits

Notably, the upgraded forecast coincides with the UK preparing to implement long-awaited casino reforms. As of July 22, small UK casinos will be allowed up to five gaming machines per table, up from the previous limit of two.

Rank plans to deploy 882 new gaming machines across its Grosvenor Casino network, increasing its total machine count to 2,249 within the next three years. The company also noted that, pending local licensing and spatial approval, the number could potentially rise to 3,112 machines. By scaling up its machine presence, Rank aims to sustain profit growth through FY2026 and beyond.

Physical-Digital Synergy Supports Long-Term Growth

CEO John O’Reilly stated the company has “maintained consistent growth momentum throughout the year,” with strong Q4 performance offsetting inflationary pressures, labor constraints, and regulatory friction. Rank’s stock reflected this resilience, rising 1.7% on the day of the trading update to 140 pence per share (approx. €1.65), nearly doubling year-over-year.

In the digital realm, Rank reported a 14% year-over-year increase in net gaming revenue for the first half of FY2025, aided by significant upgrades to its Grosvenor and Mecca apps. Enhanced player tracking and customer experience tools are expected to drive an 8–12% CAGR in online revenue. This synergy between digital and physical operations is a key pillar of Rank’s strategy and a major reason investors are increasingly confident in its profitability outlook.

Regulatory Challenges Remain but Upsides Prevail

Despite the upgraded forecast, Rank still faces ongoing regulatory pressure. Starting in April, a 0.5% statutory levy on land-based gaming revenue is expected to add £4 million (€4.7 million) annually to operating costs.

Meanwhile, online slot stake limits have been set at £5 (€5.90) for adults and £2 (€2.36) for younger players. Beginning August 30, 2024, operators must also implement “Think 25” age verification checks. These measures may somewhat slow digital revenue growth, although Rank believes that machine-based and sports betting revenues will offset the impact. For more on the socioeconomic profile of slot players and the implications of regulation, refer to SiGMA’s recent analysis article: “Why Slot Machines Favor Poorer Postcodes.”

Under the same reform package, all casinos will now be allowed to offer live sports betting, which analysts estimate could generate £5–10 million (€5.9–11.8 million) in additional annual revenue per venue.

Strategic Implications of Rank Group’s Profit Forecast

Strong data performance is evident—but that’s just part of the story. More noteworthy is Rank’s evolving strategic focus. With more machines on the floor, upgraded digital tools, and a proactive—not defensive—approach to regulation, the company is moving with intention and clarity.

With profit forecasts firmly upgraded and digital growth reinforcing land-based strategy, Rank enters FY2026 in its strongest position since before the pandemic. The upcoming preliminary results next month will reveal how much of this projected growth has already been realized, and how quickly the regulatory windfall is materializing.