Macau’s casino stocks have surged sharply in recent months, outperforming broader markets. Fueled by a rebound in visitor numbers, improved transportation links, and resurgent entertainment events, listed gaming operators in the region have significantly outpaced the Hang Seng Composite Index.
Strong Market Rally Driven by Tourism and Infrastructure Recovery
Macau’s casino stocks have surged sharply in recent months, outperforming broader markets. Fueled by a rebound in visitor numbers, improved transportation links, and resurgent entertainment events, listed gaming operators in the region have significantly outpaced the Hang Seng Composite Index.
A Bloomberg index tracking Macau-listed casino firms has jumped 59% since April, more than double the 31% gain in the broader Hang Seng Composite Index. The rally followed three consecutive months of gross gaming revenue (GGR) beating analyst forecasts, thanks in part to major concerts by Cantopop icon Jacky Cheung and K-pop star G-Dragon, along with relaxed visa policies and enhanced railway connectivity.
Melco and MGM Lead the Upswing
U.S.-listed Melco Resorts & Entertainment has seen its stock nearly double (+95%) from its spring low, while MGM China Holdings, listed in Hong Kong, has gained 72%. Despite the strong recovery, sector valuations remain relatively low.
Analysts at Jefferies Financial Group expect the momentum to continue through July, citing sustained investor optimism. Research firm Morningstar remains bullish on long-term growth, emphasizing the benefits of simplified travel policies, improved mobility, and efforts to diversify beyond gaming.
Strong H1 2025 Results Back the Rally
Macau’s gaming sector posted MOP 118.77 billion (€13.5 billion) in GGR for H1 2025, marking a 4.4% increase year-on-year. June alone recorded MOP 21.06 billion (€2.38 billion) in GGR—the second-highest monthly figure since 2019. May 2025 remains the strongest month to date, with MOP 21.19 billion (€2.41 billion).
By mid-July, cumulative GGR had reached MOP 132.35 billion (€15 billion), accounting for 61% of the government’s revised annual target and representing a 36.7% increase over the same period in 2024.
Tax Revenue Lags Behind Revenue Growth
Despite GGR gains, tax revenue grew at a slower pace. With an effective tax rate around 40%, gaming tax revenues totaled MOP 45.26 billion (€5.14 billion) in H1 2025—just a 1% increase year-on-year. Nonetheless, the government reported a fiscal surplus of MOP 11.4 billion (€1.29 billion), exceeding initial projections by 166%, reflecting sound fiscal management.
In response to recent data, the government lowered its annual GGR forecast from MOP 240 billion to MOP 228 billion (€27.3B to €25.9B) but raised its gaming tax revenue estimate from MOP 79.8 billion to MOP 88.56 billion (€9.1B to €10B), reflecting June’s strong results.
Focus Turns to H2 2025 and Continued Recovery
Entertainment events have played a pivotal role in Macau’s ongoing tourism rebound. Concerts, cultural festivals, and seasonal promotions are rejuvenating integrated resorts and supporting the government’s “moderate economic diversification” strategy outlined in the 2022 Gaming Law.
As H2 2025 progresses, the market will closely watch monthly GGR reports and upcoming financial disclosures to gauge whether Macau’s casino stock rally is sustainable.
