Macau’s Road to Recovery: Stabilizing in 2025
After a turbulent few years due to COVID-19 restrictions, Macau’s gaming sector has shown signs of stabilization. In 2025, Lyon expects only modest growth of 2% in GGR, largely attributed to a plateau in mass-market recovery and the maturity of existing VIP business channels. The report notes that while tourist arrivals have steadily increased, especially from mainland China, per capita spending has not rebounded as aggressively as anticipated.
Macau’s transition to a more mass-market-oriented model and the government’s continued push for economic diversification beyond gambling are also factors that may moderate short-term revenue acceleration.
Acceleration in 2026: Structural Tailwinds and Market Adaptation
Looking ahead to 2026, Lyon is significantly more bullish, forecasting a 10% rise in total GGR. This optimism is grounded in several key expectations:
- Improved cross-border travel convenience and relaxed visa policies from mainland China.
- A broader rebound in international tourism, potentially boosted by new transport infrastructure such as the Hengqin Port integration and expansion of high-speed rail access.
- Resilient mass-market demand, supported by rising middle-class income levels in China and increased brand loyalty among frequent visitors.
Lyon anticipates that operators who have heavily invested in non-gaming amenities, including retail, entertainment, and conventions, will be best positioned to benefit from a broader tourism recovery and evolving consumer preferences.
Top Picks: Galaxy Entertainment & Sands China
Lyon’s report highlights Galaxy Entertainment Group (27.HK) and Sands China Ltd. (1928.HK) as the strongest investment options within Macau’s gaming space. These two companies offer:
- Diversified revenue streams beyond gaming, with substantial income from hotels, restaurants, and retail.
- Premium property portfolios, such as Galaxy Macau and The Venetian, which attract high-spending tourists.
- Strong capital positions and efficient cost structures, allowing flexibility in the face of market volatility.
The research note emphasizes that these firms are strategically aligned with the Macau government’s long-term development goals, including cultural tourism and international event hosting.
Conclusion
While 2025 may present a year of modest growth for Macau’s gaming industry, Lyon’s longer-term outlook remains upbeat, underpinned by favorable macroeconomic trends, regulatory stability, and infrastructure development. For investors and industry stakeholders, 2026 represents a pivotal year, and companies like Galaxy and Sands China appear well-positioned to lead the next phase of expansion.
As Macau continues to redefine its identity as both a global gaming hub and a diversified tourism center, such research offers valuable guidance for tracking its evolution.
